Air Superiority at Red Flag

The purpose of this study is to propose a model for understanding the relationship between technology, mass, and attrition in aerial warfare that is useful for shaping operational and strategic force decision processes. The F-15C's OCA-Sweep mission within Red Flag highlights one potentially useful relationship that has value as a model for air superiority. Comparing data from 299 missions suggest a change in attrition that correlates with force ratios. The most significant implication of this study, however, is the predicted variance in changing kill ratio as the force ratio changes. The wide middle area of stability, identified as numerical attrition, is consistent with the traditional notion that kill ratio is largely set by training and technology. It is also consistent with most of the historical record, including the early campaigns of World War II, which suggested little change in kill ratio with nominal changes in the relative mass of forces. This is also the reason why technology often produced the only observable change in kill ratio. The rapid change in attrition rate at either end of the model also has great explanatory value. By indicating regions where disproportionate force dictates a similarly lopsided victory, the concept accounts for several notable cases in the historical record, like Desert Storm and Allied Force. Once improved with better data, these diagrams have the potential to aid operational planners in developing focused and efficient air superiority campaigns in future conflicts.