Air Force Special Operations Command Rated Experience Decline

Recent studies and accident investigations have brought AFSOC aircrew experience into question. While Air Force calculations indicate AFSOC experience levels are adequate, there is growing concern within the operations community that suggests experience levels are slipping to dangerous levels. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the state of AFSOC aircrew experience. By quantitatively analyzing AFSOC experience levels over time against aircrew inventories, this paper discovered that AFSOC experience levels have declined and are poised to decline further. Over-manning (mostly pilots), imbalanced manning, combat operations, low FTU capacity, and other factors are all contributing to decrease flying hours, which profoundly impacts inexperienced aircrew by extending the seasoning process. In turn, this is causing a downward spiral of experience. This paper makes several recommendations to address these issues. By increasing simulator utilization to relieve pressure on flying hours, improving aircrew management from AFSOC down to the unit level, and by re-evaluating the experience criteria, AFSOC can improve both the aircrew seasoning rate (thereby reversing the downward spiral in experience) and ensure experience levels are appropriate for current and future missions.